The Stormers' failure to beat Connacht at home — twice surrendering 10-point leads — has flipped the dynamic for Saturday's Glasgow clash in Cape Town. Instead of the Stormers defending top spot, they're now chasing it. But Gavin Rich's key point is that even a Stormers win won't necessarily lock up first place: Leinster's recovery is real, and if the Stormers win without a bonus point and Glasgow grab a losing bonus, Leinster could leapfrog both. Ulster, who still face both Cape Town contenders in home games, may ultimately play kingmaker.
Rich also flags the awkward history — Glasgow haven't lost to the Stormers since Franco Smith took over, including two comfortable quarterfinal wins at Scotstoun, and a win in Stellenbosch as recently as October 2024. Dobson has acknowledged the bogey-team dynamic. Elsewhere, the Lions are genuinely in the mix for a top-two finish if results break right, and the Bulls' soft run-in makes them quiet contenders too. The Sharks' path, Rich concludes, is too dependent on others stumbling to take seriously.