Murray Mexted argues that possession percentage is the most underappreciated metric in rugby analysis, and that it will be the defining factor when the All Blacks tour South Africa. Using the Nations Championship win over Ireland as his exhibit — he predicted a 10-point win if New Zealand secured 58% possession, they got 59% and won by 19 — Mexted frames the upcoming Greatest Rivalry series as a possession battle the All Blacks cannot afford to lose. He points directly to last year's tour, where New Zealand held roughly 41-42% of the ball and were beaten, as proof that going to South Africa without winning their share of possession is simply a losing formula.
Beyond the stats, Mexted flags altitude, environment, and the Boks' physical dominance as compounding factors that don't exist anywhere else on the Test calendar. He's also encouraged by Tupou Vaa'i at blindside flanker and the cohesion of the Savea-Jacobson-Vaa'i loose forward trio, but his core message is structural: bulk up, win ball, control the game. Whether Dave Rennie's squad can actually execute that in Johannesburg and Cape Town is the question the piece leaves hanging — and the reason it's worth reading ahead of the series.