Gavin Rich's breakdown of the URC semifinal draw makes a clear case that the Bulls are better placed than the Stormers despite both sides having to travel. The key factor isn't form or selection — it's the surface. Glasgow's home at Scotstoun (4G artificial) has been a fortress all season, but the clash with Commonwealth Games preparations has pushed the semifinal to Murrayfield, which is natural grass. Glasgow's record on grass is notably inferior, and both the Stormers and Lions beat them in South Africa earlier this season on grass. That shift alone meaningfully narrows the home-side advantage.
The Stormers, meanwhile, face a tougher assignment than their quarterfinal form suggested. Their 44-21 demolition of Cardiff was commanding, but it came at a heavy price — Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu is out (and likely gone for the Rugby Championship window too), Seabelo Senatla is concussed, Cobus Reinach remains unavailable, and Dan du Plessis is a doubt. Leinster at the Aviva, in contrast to how they looked losing the Champions Cup final to Bordeaux-Bègles, are a different proposition entirely — unbeaten at home this season outside of Croke Park. Rich's conclusion is that the Bulls, boosted by the venue switch, are the more likely South African finalist.