Nick Mallett has gone public with an explanation from attack coach Tony Brown for why the Springboks consistently struggle in opening Tests of a series. Brown's theory: when the squad reconvenes after a break, the coaching staff's enthusiasm leads to players being overloaded with information before that first match, leaving them overstimulated rather than primed. Mallett traces the pattern through the 2021 Lions series, last year's Rugby Championship opener against Australia, and the recent RGR loss at Ellis Park — and argues the flip side is that the Boks reliably hit their peak the longer a series runs. His prediction for the Baltimore decider is accordingly bullish. Victor Matfield adds a tactical layer, arguing that the Ellis Park defeat is precisely why Erasmus has resisted rotation — the 2-1 lead flatters a side that felt genuine pressure, and the coaching group wants a definitive 3-1 to close it out rather than just a series win.