The Springboks will look to exploit a crucial advantage of continuity and freshness when they face New Zealand in Baltimore on Saturday, with the All Blacks arriving at the final Rugby's Greatest Rivalry Test visibly worn down by a punishing month-long tour.
While the fixture itself has been dismissed by some as an anti-climactic "money game" — staged thousands of kilometres from the South African theatre where the series was genuinely decided — the physical toll on Dave Rennie's squad has handed Rassie Erasmus a tangible edge. The All Blacks have been forced to navigate not only three ferociously contested Tests but also four provincial matches against the Stormers, Sharks, Bulls and Lions, a schedule that has left the tourists depleted.
Captain Ardie Savea, flanker Luke Jacobson and centre Quinn Tupaea are among the casualties, with injuries mounting across a squad that has been subjected to relentless physical examination. Former All Blacks scrum-half Justin Marshall acknowledged the strain, noting the tourists have been "beaten up" by an itinerary that required almost the entire squad to feature in provincial fixtures.
"Unlike the Springboks, they've had to do the provincial games as well which everybody had a hand in apart from Cam Roigard and Will Jordan," Marshall said. "The squad has obviously been through a lot, and physically they've been challenged. This is a very well-drilled, efficient South African team, back-to-back World Cup champions and the number one team in the world before we got there."
Erasmus manages continuity
In contrast, Erasmus has enjoyed the luxury of focusing solely on the Test series, making only minor adjustments to his squad despite the intensity of the contests. The Springboks' sole significant absentee for Baltimore is Cheslin Kolbe, ruled out with a broken jaw sustained in the third Test at FNB Stadium, where South Africa sealed the series 2-1.
That continuity has allowed the world champions to refine their approach across three matches, with their fundamentals-based game plan — built on set-piece dominance and defensive brutality — proving decisive in the second and third Tests. The All Blacks, meanwhile, have been forced into constant recalibration as injuries disrupted combinations and drained resources.
The fixture may lack the narrative weight of last week's Soweto decider, but the stakes remain genuine for a New Zealand side seeking to salvage pride by squaring the series. Whether they possess the physical reserves to trouble a Springbok team that has managed its workload with precision will define Saturday's contest in Baltimore.