The Springboks' hold on top spot in the World Rugby rankings faces its sternest test of the Nations Championship when Scotland visit Pretoria on Saturday.
World Rugby's published permutations confirm South Africa will surrender the summit if they lose by more than 15 points and New Zealand overcome Italy in the earlier fixture. The All Blacks cannot improve their own rating against the Azzurri due to a 13.73-point gap, but would reclaim number one should the world champions slip in Pretoria.
For the Springboks, victory offers minimal reward—a maximum gain of 0.03 rating points reflects the 9.83-point differential with their opponents. Scotland, meanwhile, could reach a new high of fourth with a win over South Africa and a French defeat in Australia. However, the visitors risk dropping two places if they lose and both England and Argentina record victories, the latter by more than 15 points.
Elsewhere in the Nations Championship, Wales could return to the top 10 for the first time since July 2024 if they beat Argentina and Italy fail to overcome New Zealand. Japan would re-enter the top 10 for the first time since July 2023 with victory over Ireland in Australia, provided both Italy and Wales lose their fixtures.
England could climb as high as fourth with a win over Fiji in Liverpool, though that scenario requires defeats for Scotland and France, the latter by more than 15 points. Italy, chasing a first-ever win over New Zealand, would rise to ninth if they cause an upset and Fiji also lose.