Rankings permutations: How Scotland could reach a new high and what South Africa must avoid

World Rugby has published the ranking permutations for Round Two of the Nations Championship and Nations Cup, with several significant shifts possible depending on results this weekend.

South Africa's position at the top of the rankings is not seriously under threat. The Springboks can gain a maximum of 0.03 rating points by beating Scotland, a reflection of the 9.83-point differential between the sides. They would only surrender top spot to New Zealand if they lose to Scotland by more than 15 points and the All Blacks beat Italy — a scenario that would require a historic collapse in Pretoria.

Scotland, buoyed by last weekend's win over Argentina, stand to lose the two ranking places that result earned them if England beat Fiji and Argentina beat Wales by more than 15 points. However, a win over the world champions — combined with a France loss in Brisbane — would lift Scotland to a new high of fourth. Third is mathematically possible but requires Scotland to win by more than 15 points, France to lose, and Ireland to lose to Japan by the same margin.

New Zealand can reach number one without even taking the field, provided South Africa lose to Scotland by more than 15 points. The All Blacks cannot improve their rating by beating Italy due to the 13.73-point differential, but a first-ever loss to Italy would drop them to third if Ireland beat Japan.

Ireland face a similar ceiling: the 12.90-point differential against Japan means victory yields no rating gain, though they could climb to second if New Zealand lose to Italy. A beaten Ireland drops to fourth only if France beat Australia and one of the two matches is decided by more than 15 points, with a further fall possible if Scotland beat South Africa with both games settled by margins above 15 points.

Japan can break back into the top 10 for the first time since July 2023 by beating Ireland, provided Italy and Wales both lose.

England can only improve from sixth with a Fiji win and a simultaneous Scotland loss in Pretoria. Fourth is possible if Australia beat France by more than 15 points in Brisbane. Fiji cannot overhaul England this weekend even with a bonus-point-style victory — a win by more than 15 points would leave just 0.06 rating points between the teams — but they can reach seventh if Argentina also lose by the same margin.

The Nations Championship's Round Two schedule runs from New Zealand v Italy through to Argentina v Wales in Buenos Aires, with South Africa v Scotland in Pretoria among the marquee fixtures.