Jan de Koning runs the statistical ruler over both teams' 2025 campaigns to reveal two sharply divergent tactical identities ahead of the four-Test series. The All Blacks' numbers tell a consistent story: high carry, pass and offload counts, minimal kicking, and a clear intent to play at pace and avoid the arm-wrestle. Across their four matches — France, Italy, Ireland and the Stormers — New Zealand averaged just 18 kicks per game while racking up passing and offload volumes that dwarf most opponents. Their tackle success rate is the one soft spot, along with scrum concerns. The Boks present a far murkier picture. Their kicking count is strikingly high (121 kicks across four Tests), their offload numbers are minimal, and their carry-to-pass ratios suggest a team leaning hard into a pragmatic, territory-based game — what Erasmus calls 'World Cup playoff rugby.' But the rotation policy complicates the read: only six players started all three July Tests, making it genuinely difficult to separate tactical intent from squad-management noise. The defensive numbers are also inconsistent — 92–93% tackle success against Argentina and Wales, but a concerning 81% against Scotland, who exposed the Boks with exactly the kind of passing and offload game New Zealand will bring. De Koning leaves the key question open: is the kicking-heavy, low-offload Bok game a genuine tactical pivot, or has Erasmus been keeping his powder dry all along?
Numbers don't lie: The tactical gulf between the Boks and All Blacks heading into the Greatest Rivalry series
A statistical breakdown of both teams' 2025 campaigns reveals the All Blacks as a high-tempo, ball-in-hand machine while the Boks' numbers point to a kicking-heavy, pragmatic approach — though Erasmus's rotation policy makes it hard to know how much is genuine tactics and how much is smoke and mirrors ahead of the series.
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