Nick Mallett's argument is straightforward: a 2-2 series draw would hand the All Blacks a narrative they'll exploit. Despite losing two of three Tests, New Zealand have outscored the Boks 13 tries to eight across the series — and Mallett warns that if they equalise in Baltimore, they'll lean on those numbers as a form of moral victory heading into next year's World Cup. A potential quarter-final in Australia between the two sides gives the decider added psychological weight well beyond the series itself. Mallett reads Erasmus's near-unchanged selection as a deliberate signal — no rotation, no complacency, a clear intent to make it 3-1 and close the door on any All Blacks bragging rights. The mental arithmetic is simple: a Bok win leaves New Zealand entering Australia 2027 having lost three of four to the world champions; a draw resets the confidence ledger considerably.