Johan Coetzee breaks down the five moments that cost the Boks a match they had every right to win. The spine of the analysis is the third-quarter scrum sequence: with New Zealand on the ropes deep in their own 22, the Boks gambled on forcing a yellow card or penalty try rather than taking the three points on offer — a decision Erasmus later revealed contradicted the instruction from the coaches' box. Steenekamp's premature wheel gave Carley the out, New Zealand escaped without conceding a point, and the game turned. That wasn't the only self-inflicted wound. Marx's knock-on on the line near halftime wiped seven points off the board, the Van Staden and Reinach yellow cards left the Boks defending with 13 men in the final 10 minutes, and Jordan's second try — off a blindside play against a stretched defence — closed it out. The recurring theme: South Africa won the collision count and dominated the scrum for long stretches, but handling errors, missed finishes and a critical tactical miscalculation meant none of it translated to points when it mattered.