The All Blacks have outscored the Springboks by five tries across the first three Tests of the Greatest Rivalry series, yet find themselves trailing 2-1 ahead of this weekend's finale in Baltimore. New Zealand attack coach Mike Blair acknowledged his side's proficiency in creating opportunities but conceded that converting pressure into points remains the critical shortfall.
In Saturday's 24-29 defeat in Soweto, the All Blacks crossed for four tries and registered 12 linebreaks, continuing a pattern that has seen them dominate the attacking statistics without securing the results. Blair pointed to the disparity between chance creation and scoreboard impact, noting that his side have kicked just one penalty goal across the three fixtures.
"Twelve linebreaks is a great stat for us. Four tries against South Africa is not a bad stat — that's 13 tries in three games," Blair said. "It's that ability to hold onto the ball and build pressure and build scoreboard pressure, and that might be through kicking at goal as well, which we've not had a huge amount of."
The third Test followed a familiar script. New Zealand dominated the opening half-hour, with Ardie Savea crossing twice as the visitors threatened to seize control. But the Springboks absorbed the early onslaught, turned the contest through set-piece dominance and unleashed their power game in the final quarter to secure victory and an unassailable series lead.
Clinical defence under pressure
Championship-winning sides survive moments of maximum pressure, and the Springboks did precisely that when Will Jordan sliced through from inside his own 22 and raced to halfway before chipping ahead. Cheslin Kolbe, isolated in cover, gathered cleanly, evaded the chase and found touch near halfway. Instead of another wave of New Zealand pressure, the Boks reset and steadied.
Blair believes a more clinical approach on attack will also help nullify the Springboks' strengths. The All Blacks' finish success rate inside the opposition 22 has been excellent across the three Tests, but too many sequences have ended in turnovers rather than points. Those turnovers lead to set-pieces, slowing the game and allowing the world champions to impose their preferred tempo.
The fourth Test in Baltimore offers New Zealand one final opportunity to level the series. The attacking platform is in place. Whether they can convert that foundation into the scoreboard pressure required to overcome the Springboks will determine the outcome of the Greatest Rivalry in 2026.